Solar Rebate vs. Net Metering: A Worked Ontario Example

Ontario homeowners considering solar in 2026 face a real fork in the road. The Home Renovation Savings Program (HRS), delivered jointly by Save on Energy and Enbridge Gas, has offered up to $10,000 combined for rooftop solar plus battery storage, reported as up to $5,000 for solar and up to $5,000 for the battery. But according to program rules published in 2026, systems that receive this rebate operate as load displacement and cannot enrol in net metering for the life of the system. Any electricity you export is simply not credited.

An analysis by The Atmospheric Fund (July 2026) argues that many homeowners are better off keeping net metering instead. This guide works through a transparent example so you can see why, and when the rebate can still make sense. Program details change; confirm current terms on saveonenergy.ca (opens in a new tab) before you commit.

The assumptions

Every number below is an estimate. We chose round, typical values so you can substitute your own.

Assumption	Value used	Notes
Home	Detached, Toronto area	Gas heat, no EV
Annual electricity use	9,500 kWh	Slightly above typical for a non-electric-heat home
Solar array	8 kW, south-facing, unshaded
Specific yield	1,150 kWh/kW/yr	Mid-range for southern Ontario
Annual production	9,200 kWh	Below annual use, so no net metering credits expire
Solar installed cost	$2.75/W = $22,000	Within the typical $2.50–$3.50/W range
Battery	13.5 kWh, $16,000 installed	Within the typical $12,000–$20,000 range
Self-consumption, solar only	35% of production	Typical 25–40% for a home empty on weekdays
Self-consumption, solar + battery	65% of production	Battery stores midday surplus for evening use
Value of a kWh used on site	14¢	Avoided commodity plus variable charges, after the 15.7% OER
Value of a net metering credit	12¢	Retail commodity value at typical solar hours, after the OER
Value of an export under load displacement	0¢	Exports are not credited
Rebate	$5,000 solar + $5,000 battery	As reported; confirm eligibility

We use simple payback and 25-year net savings, ignoring panel degradation (about 0.5% a year), future electricity price increases, financing costs and an inverter replacement. Those factors roughly offset one another in the comparison but would shift the absolute figures. Electricity prices come from the Regulated Price Plan effective 1 November 2026; see our price plans guide.

Scenario A: Solar only, net metering, no rebate

Self-consumed: 9,200 × 35% = 3,220 kWh × 14¢ = $451
Exported and credited: 5,980 kWh × 12¢ = $718
Annual value: about $1,169
Cost: $22,000
Simple payback: about 18.8 years
25-year value: $29,225, so net savings of about $7,200

Because annual production is below annual use, summer credits are fully used over the winter and nothing expires.

Scenario B: Solar + battery, HRS rebate, load displacement

The household switches to Ultra-Low Overnight so the battery can also shift some grid use from the 4–9 p.m. on-peak window (37.7¢) to overnight (3.7¢), mainly in winter when there is little solar to store.

Self-consumed solar: 9,200 × 65% = 5,980 kWh × 14¢ = $837
Exported, not credited: 3,220 kWh × 0¢ = $0
Battery rate shifting on ULO (partial year, estimate): $250
Annual value: about $1,087
Cost: $22,000 + $16,000 − $10,000 rebate = $28,000
Simple payback: about 25.8 years
25-year value: $27,175, so net savings of about −$800

Note the forgone exports: 3,220 kWh × 12¢ = about $386 a year, or roughly $9,700 over 25 years. That is close to the full $10,000 rebate. On top of that, LFP batteries are commonly warrantied for about 10 years, so a replacement or capacity loss within the 25-year period is likely and is not counted here.

Scenario C: Smaller array sized for load displacement, with the rebate

The rebate looks better when you design for it. Here the array is cut to 4 kW so most output is used on site.

Production: 4 kW × 1,150 = 4,600 kWh
Self-consumed with battery: 90% = 4,140 kWh × 14¢ = $580
Exported, not credited: 460 kWh (about $55 of forgone credit)
Battery rate shifting on ULO (more spare capacity, estimate): $350
Annual value: about $930
Cost: $11,000 + $16,000 − $10,000 = $17,000
Simple payback: about 18.3 years
25-year net savings: about $6,250 (before any battery replacement)

Side-by-side summary

	A: Net metering, solar only	B: Rebate, 8 kW + battery	C: Rebate, 4 kW + battery
Net cost	$22,000	$28,000	$17,000
Annual value (estimate)	$1,169	$1,087	$930
Simple payback	~18.8 yrs	~25.8 yrs	~18.3 yrs
25-year net savings	~$7,200	~−$800	~$6,250
Backup power	No	Yes	Yes
Share of home's electricity offset	~97%	~63%	~44%

A homeowner who also wants backup power could add a battery to Scenario A at full price, if the LDC and ESA approve the design. At $16,000 plus roughly $575 a year of ULO rate shifting, that battery would take more than 25 years to pay for itself on savings alone. The HRS rebate effectively discounts the battery by $5,000 but takes away export credits on the whole system.

Note: If you are offered the rebate on solar alone, check how it is structured. Under load displacement without a battery, only about 35% of output in our example would have value, and payback on a full 8 kW array could stretch past 35 years.

What changes the answer

The rebate route gets better if:

Someone is home during the day (working from home, retirees), raising self-consumption.
You have large daytime loads: a heat pump running in shoulder seasons, an EV charging at home midday, a pool pump.
You want backup power and were going to buy a battery anyway.
Your array is small relative to your use, so exports are minimal.

Net metering gets better if:

The home is empty on weekdays, so most output is exported.
You have room for a larger array and want to offset most of your annual use.
You do not need backup power.
Your installer's price for batteries is at the high end.

Sensitivity: self-consumption in Scenario B

Self-consumption with battery	Annual value	Simple payback
50%	$894	~31 yrs
65% (base case)	$1,087	~26 yrs
80%	$1,280	~22 yrs

Even at 80% self-consumption, the full-size rebate system lags simple net metering in this example.

How to run your own comparison

Download 12 months of hourly or TOU-period usage from your LDC's online account.
Ask installers for a production estimate and an hourly self-consumption estimate for each design.
Get quotes for both routes: a net-metered array, and a rebate-eligible solar + battery package.
Use realistic values: about 12¢ for exports and 13–15¢ for self-consumed kWh at current rates after the OER, and 0¢ for exports under load displacement.
Compare 25-year net savings, not just payback, and include a battery replacement if your horizon exceeds its warranty.
Confirm eligibility, pre-approval steps and net metering rules on saveonenergy.ca (opens in a new tab) and with your LDC before signing.

Our solar savings calculator can help with steps 4 and 5.

Frequently asked questions

Can I take the rebate now and switch to net metering later?

According to program rules published in 2026, no. Systems that receive the HRS solar + battery rebate cannot enrol in net metering for the life of the system. Treat the decision as permanent and confirm the current wording before applying.

Why does net metering value exports at only about 12¢?

Net metering credits are based on the retail commodity value of electricity. Fixed delivery charges are not offset, and the Ontario Electricity Rebate reduces the dollar value of each kWh you avoid. Self-consumed solar is worth a little more because it also avoids some variable charges.

Is the rebate ever clearly the better choice?

It can be when you want backup power, will use most of your solar output on site and size the array accordingly, as in Scenario C. Even then, the margin over net metering is small in our example.

Do future electricity price increases change the conclusion?

Higher prices increase the value of both routes. They slightly favour net metering, because every exported kWh gains value, whereas load displacement exports remain worth zero.